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2180 Steeles Avenue West,
Suite 204, Concord,
ON, L4K 2Z5

Phone:     905-761-7001
Toll Free: 1855-761-7001
Fax:          905-761-7005

Email: mortgageadvisor@rogers.com

5 September 2017

Should we expect a rate hike this Wednesday?

As Canada’s economy keeps showing unexpectedly strong growth this year, some specialists shift their rate hike forecasts to an earlier date.

The recent data shows that the national economic growth reached 4.5% in the second quarter, following a 3.7% increase, reported during the first three months of 2017.

Such a strong performance has made certain analysts predict a rate increase by the central bank this Wednesday and not later this fall as expected earlier.

According to Derek Holt from Scotiabank, the Bank of Canada may raise its key lending rate this week, as the economic growth has been outpacing the Bank’s forecasts for a long time already.

Nevertheless, it will take time to see the full effect from a rate increase. The recent study shows that it could take more than a year for a rate hike to show its full influence on the economy.

In addition to it, today’s central bankers tend not to shock markets with unexpected decisions. Although the BoC governor Stephen Poloz never answers the questions on a rate policy directly, he still gives certain hints. And the latest survey of economists, who notice the slightest hints, says there were no signs of it.

One more reason why a rate hike is unlikely tomorrow is the fact that Wednesday's release will be only in a written form. As a rule, such significant changes as raising the rate come with a verbal explanation from the governor and his deputy. It’s also followed by a press-conference with questions from financial reporters.

So, if the Bank raises the rate tomorrow, it will be a real surprise.



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