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2180 Steeles Avenue West,
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Phone:     905-761-7001
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3 January 2019

Some experts predict a rate cut in 2019

Before the central bank’s next rate meeting, Capital Economics is back with its cut forecasts.

The economic research firm, which is known for its predictions of rate declines, says again that the Bank of Canada will cut its key lending rate at the end of 2019. Meanwhile, other experts predict the opposite.

“Now we believe the BoC’s forecasts will be more optimistic than ours, but we won’t be surprised if the Bank keeps pushing its hike course”, - Capital Economics says.

“However, when it becomes obvious that the national economy shows weaker results than expected, the central bank will have to change its path and cut interest rates at the end of this year,” – it adds.

Following years of stimulating monetary policy and historically low interest rates supporting the economic conditions, the Bank of Canada started raising rates in July 2017.

Since then, the rate was raised four times to the current 1.75%, and many specialists expect more hikes in 2019.

Capital Economics points to the fact that oil prices fell by 40% recently, and the BoC “seriously underestimated” the consequences of the previous decline, so it could be the same this time.

“We can already see that the oil prices drop affects Canada negatively”, - Capital Economics says, adding that the number of active oil rigs went down by 20% on a year-over-year basis last month,

Moreover, slowing consumer spending and a cooling national housing market also make Capital Economics believe that the Bank will change its hike plans at least once at the end of the year.



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